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Showing posts with label Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES January 20-22

9:11 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $112 million for the weekend, up fully 26% from last year's disaster weekend and in the ballpark (-4%) from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Underworld Awakening is now looking like it will gross more than $25 million in its opening weekend, and Red Tails over $19 million.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: Underworld Awakening ($64 million), Red Tails ($53 million), Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close ($33 million) and Haywire ($27 million). 


The second week movies include Beauty and the Beast 3D ($57 million) which has been adjusted down sharply and Contraband ($76 million) which has been adjusted up slightly.  Joyful Noise ($35 million) and The Iron Lady ($22 million) are relatively steady.

The Devil Inside ($47 million) has been adjusted down again, while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ($27 million) is steady in its third week of wide release.

Not shown on the chart below,  The Artist grossed $2.37 million this weekend at an expanded 662 theaters (for a lame $3,579 per theater).  But the film is gathering a head of steam for a Best Picture Oscar with a Golden Globe win and more importantly a Producer's Guild victory last night.  ABC has to be worried about ratings for its Academy Awards telecast if a very small film ($12.1 million total gross to date) with little serious competition cruises to victory.      


January 20-22                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $25.4             $ 64
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $19.1             $ 53
Contraband                (Uni)     $12.2   -50%      $ 76
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB)     $10.5             $ 33
Haywire                   (Rel)     $ 9.0             $ 27
Beauty and the Beast 3D   (Dis)     $ 8.6   -52%      $ 57--
Joyful Noise               (WB)     $ 6.1   -46%      $ 35
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $ 5.5   -53%      $217
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $ 4.8   -44%      $190 
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $ 3.8   -44%      $110
The Iron Lady           (Weins)     $ 3.7   -32%      $ 22 
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $ 3.0   -49%      $ 87



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $112 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a small 4% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #3


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $112  Underworld Awakening $25, Red Tails $19, Ext Loud $10
2011  $ 89  No Strings Attached $20  
2010  $128  Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009  $130  Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008  $118  Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11

2008-11
Avg   $116

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FRIDAY JANUARY 20 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:25 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The third weekend of 2012 is better than the same weekend last year, but it's a fairly mediocre weekend looking at a broader historical context.  Underworld Awakening is leading the charge at #1, but Red Tails is not too far behind.   

Underworld Awakening is coming in just under forecast, pulling in $9.4 million Friday and an estimated $23.9 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $25.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The fourth Underworld is headed for a preliminary $59 million total domestic, which would put it just behind Underworld Evolution ($62.3 million in 2006) but ahead of Underworld ($51.9 million in 2003) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($45.8 million in 2009). 


Red Tails is beating our prediction: opening with $6 million Friday on its way to almost $18 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14.5 million prediction.  The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $50 million domestic.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $3 million Friday and $9.4 million this weekend, below the $12.5 million forecast.  The film with Oscar hopes and dreams (cast, director, subject matter right out of the awards playbook) has not wowed critics (an evenly split 50% positive review score at RottenTomatoes) and our forecast of $30 million total domestic does not indicate much mainstream potential.  

Haywire is under our fairly weak forecast, $8.7 million opening weekend versus $8.0 million forecast.  Finishing at #15 this weekend (outside our chart), The Artist is looking to gross $2.3 million this weekend, averaging a low $3,475 at 662 theaters (expanding from 216 last week).  The total gross should stand at $12 million through Sunday.   

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 20-22, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5]    $23.9   $ 9.4     $ 59
Red Tails (Fox)          [$14.5]    $17.8   $ 6.0     $ 50
Contraband (Uni)         [$12.0]    $11.9   $ 3.7     $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5]    $ 9.4   $ 3.2     $ 30
Haywire (Rel)            [$ 8.0]    $ 8.7   $ 2.9     $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$10.5]    $ 7.5   $ 2.1     $ 53--
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$ 6.5]    $ 5.9   $ 1.7     $ 34
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0]    $ 4.9   $ 1.5     $214--
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$ 5.0]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $187
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ 4.5]    $ 3.9   $ 1.0     $ 23
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ ---]    $ 3.2   $ 1.0     $109
War Horse (DW/Dis)       [$ ---]    $ 2.9   $ 0.9     $ 86


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #3


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $104  Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9
2011  $ 89  No Strings Attached $20  
2010  $128  Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009  $130  Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008  $118  Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11

2008-11
Avg   $116


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

###

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS January 20-22

12:22 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The third weekend of the year should generate about $114 million for the top 12 films.  This would be a marked improvement from last year's very weak comparable weekend, but in line with most other years for this weekend.  Underworld Awakening should open at #1 with $25+ million, but don't look for this installment in the series to have real staying power in subsequent weeks.           


Opening at over 2,900 theaters, Underworld Awakening from Sony should average a solid $8,800 per theater (for $25.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews are posted for this film on RottenTomatoes, not nearly enough to summarize critical sentiment.  Underworld Awakening is on track for a preliminary $63 million domestically.  The previous domestic grosses for films in this series: Underworld $51.9 million (9.19.2003), Underworld: Evolution $62.3 million (1.20.2006), Underworld: Rise of the Lycans $45.8 million (1.23.2009).      

Opening in about 2,500 theaters, Red Tails from 20th Century Fox should average about $5,900 per theater ($14.5 million Friday-Sunday). The WW II action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen should gross about $38 million domestically.

Expanding to over 2,500 theaters, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close from Warner Brothers should average about $5,000 per theater ($12.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Critics are surprisingly split over the latest from Stephen Daldry (director of The Reader, The Hours and Billy Elliot): only 49% positive at RottenTomatoes.  The drama should be on track for a final tally of $38 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,000 theaters, Haywire should average only $4,000 per theater ($8.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Despite very supportive reviews (85% positive), the action film from director Stephen Soderbergh should play to a fairly limited audience.  Total domestic gross should be around $32 million.   



                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
January 20-22                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Underworld Awakening     Sony R     n/a      $25.5     $ 63 
Red Tails                Fox  PG13  n/a      $14.5     $ 38
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB   PG13  49%      $12.5     $ 38 
Haywire                  Rel  R     85%      $ 8.0     $ 32


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical drops are in store for most holdovers (in the -45% to -50% range).   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
January 20-22                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Contraband              Uni       -50%      $12.0     $ 71
Beauty & Beast 3D       Dis       -42%      $10.5     $ 84
Mission: Impossible 4   Par       -41%      $ 7.0     $223
Joyful Noise             WB       -40%      $ 6.5     $ 32
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       -44%      $ 5.0     $190 
Iron Lady              Wein       -21%      $ 4.5     $ 20


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $89 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $128 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $114 million, up 28% from this weekend last year but about the same as (down 2%) an "average" comparable weekend.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


1/21/11

 No Strings Attached PAR R Ashton Kutcher Natalie Portman 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $20  Actual: $20
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $74  Actual: $71
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $77

1/22/10

 The Tooth Fairy FOX PG The Rock Ashley Judd 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17  Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $46  Actual: $60
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $52

 Legion SONY R Paul Bettany Lucas Black 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $41  Actual: $40
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28

 Extraordinary Measures CBS PG Harrison Ford Brendan Fraser 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8  Actual: $6
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $14  Actual: $12
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $3



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part I)

4:44 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



While you weren't looking, the Oscar race began.

One could make the argument, of course, that it's been on for months--since, at least, Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS energized the indie/art-film audience and propelled him into mass consciousness for the first time in years.  (On the other hand, one could also argue that this year's Oscar race started roughly the moment the producers of THE KING'S SPEECH stopped saying "Thank you" last February 27.)

Certainly the Oscars have been in the air since the incredibly complicated new voting rules for Best Picture nominations were announced.  As a result of those rules, we won't know until the nominations are actually announced just how many Best Picture nominees there will be--the final number could be anywhere between 5 and 10, because (to simplify brutally) a minimum threshold has to be met for any given film beyond 5 to qualify for a nomination.

Here at SHOWBUZZDAILY we're embracing the concept of the Oscars as a horse-race.  The Academy Awards are enormous fun, but let's face it:  they have a relatively limited amount to do with quality, and a great deal to do with strategy, demographics and luck.  (Sure, in 20 years it will be clear that THE SOCIAL NETWORK should have won in 2010...  but in 20 years, it'll still be the picture that lost.)  So welcome to our coverage.  Over the next few days, we'll introduce the clear contenders, subdividing them as a racing form might.  Today:  the Chalk (those are the favorites, for the uninitiated).

The odds to win below come from actual bookmaking websites (which probably shouldn't be linked to); the odds to become one of the Best Picture nominees are ours.  (Note that there are some inconsistencies among the odds, due to biases among bookmaking patrons that include a preference for UK titles, and what some might consider undue regard for films that have already been released.)  Place your bets...

CHALK

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/5
Bookie odds to win:  5/2

Good Bet:  Steven Spielberg in his wheelhouse, a mix of sentimentality (A Boy and His Horse) and fierce,warfare (Boy Loses Horse to the trenches of WWI).  It also doesn't hurt that the film is based on the same novel as the Tony-Award winning play (although the two versions were adapted from the book independently of one another).

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen an inch of it yet... except for the trailer, which comes uncomfortably close to what a Spielberg parody mash-up might look like.  (Did John Williams compose the score in 1988?)
 
THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight - Nov. 18)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/3
Bookie odds to win:  3/1

Good Bet:  Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways has been hailed at multiple film festivals, and features a sure-to-be-nominated lead performance from George Clooney.

Bad Bet:  It's a little bit lightweight.  Maybe too much of a comedy for the Academy's taste. 

THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney) - Released Aug. 10)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/2
Bookie odds to win:  20/1

Good Bet:  The little movie that could:  $163M in tickets sold, on a $25M budget.  A weighty subject, and an award-worthy ensemble cast.

Bad Bet:  Concerns about the film's protagonist being the Emma Stone character rather than the maids, plus a general feel among critics that it was a superficial look at an immensely complicated subject.  DreamWorks has War Horse to push--how much effort will they put into a movie that isn't directed by Spielberg and has already banked a ton of profit?

J.EDGAR (Warner Bros - Nov. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/1
Bookie odds to win:  7/2

Good Bet:  Mr. Eastwood.  Exactly the kind of huge, political biography the Academy loves.  DiCaprio aging with lots of prosthetic make-up and a funny voice.  Could this be his year?

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it yet, and it opens in less than 4 weeks.  Flags of Our Fathers and Invictus suggest that historical pageants may not be Clint's thing.  The subject matter is tricky--is the movie really going to tiptoe away from the gay angle? 

THE ARTIST (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  3/2 
Bookie odds to win:  11/2

Good Bet:  There's nothing else remotely like it:  a black-and-white, virtually silent film that has a heart to go along with its technical perfection.  Already a critical darling after its film festival screenings.  It's about movies.  And it's getting this year's main push from Mr. Harvey Weinstein.

Bad Bet:  It's unique, all right, but is it important or just odd?  Is there an audience for it beyond cineastes?  Warm-hearted slapstick comedy isn't usually the Academy's genre of choice.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Classics - Released May 20)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  2/1
Bookie odds to win:  16/1

Good Bet:  The Woodman's Biggest Hit Ever.  (If you don't adjust for inflation.)  A movie everybody likes, it manages to be classy and smart and yet not ostentatious.

Bad Bet:  But let's face it, not one of Woody's very best.  The boxoffice gross may be prize enough. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warner Bros - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/2
Bookie odds to win:  8/1

Good Bet:  There is no better definition of "Oscar Bait" than a movie about 9/11, from the director of Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader, based on a critically acclaimed bestseller, that stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock--not to mention Max Von Sydow, James Gandolfini, Viola Davis, and John Goodman. It could have been assembled from a How-To-Win-An-Oscar kit.

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it.  Critics could very well resist the neatness of the package, and without critical acclaim, its chances would be incredibly far away.

COMING TOMORROW:  THE FIELD

COMING SUNDAY:  ALSO ELIGIBLE


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THE BIJOU @ TIFF: "Albert Nobbs"

11:09 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Rodrigo Garcia's film ALBERT NOBBS (he shares auteurship with Glenn Close, who served as screenwriter with John Banville and Gabriella Prekop and as a producer as well as star) caters to what used to be called the James Ivory audience, when he was still churning his films out. In NY, these are the audiences at the Paris Theatre; in LA, they're at the ArcLight and (even more) the Landmark. They like their intelligent historical dramas with a social theme; they were starting to be neglected in recent years, until The King's Speech came along, and this year, Albert Nobbs is there for them.


As is widely known, getting Nobbs made has been a crusade for Close, who played the title role off-Broadway more than a decade ago. Nobbs the character is an ordinary butler in a late 19th Century Irish hotel--ordinary, that is, except that he's actually a woman pretending to be a man, it being a time when women weren't permitted to hold such jobs. He/she's succeeded in fooling those around him for decades, but an accidental meeting with another cross-dressing worker (a house painter played by Janet McTeer) who has actually married another woman and lives with her as man and wife, broadens Albert's horizons and eventually leads to dire consequences. 

The main point of Nobbs the movie, of course, is Close's performance, and it's a model of restraint--so much so that it could put a dent in her Oscar hopes, as voters tend to favor the flamboyant over the repressed (think Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs versus Hopkins in Remains of the Day).  The performance makes sense, as Albert (we never learn the butler's original female name) has been hiding his/her whole life, but it's also somewhat problematic dramatically, because Albert is apart from anything else a completely blank slate, utterly naive about love, sex and just about everything else--which, after a life spent in hotels, among staff and guests, seems somewhat contrived.  Also problematic is Close's make-up, which is so extreme as to make her appear robotic in certain shots--not, it seems, because of the gender-switching (McTeer has a far more naturalistic look), but because Close, in her early 60s, is really far too old to be playing Nobbs, who's meant to be 20 years younger.  Close's age, which is never effectively masked despite all the effort, is a mixed blessing, in that it helps to confirm how out of touch Albert is with everyone else at the hotel, but on the other hand makes Albert's fumbling attempts at romance seem inappropriate for reasons having nothing to do with gender.

Despite these troublesome issues, Albert Nobbs is fairly consistently entertaining.  Much of it has to do with our endless fascination with upstairs/downstairs stories of the British well-to-do and their servants, as evidenced by the runaway success of the recent (and far superior Downton Abbey).  In some ways, the sections of the script having to do with the rest of the staff at Albert's hotel are more engaging than Albert's own story.  The cast includes Mia Wasikowska as the pretty maid everyone desires, Brendan Gleeson as the (naturally alcoholic) doctor, and Aaron Johnson as the new handyman who ends up central to Albert's difficulties.

Garcia's direction is considerably more varied than in his earlier films like Nine Lives and Mother and Child, which tend to play out as set-piece scenes for his actors.  Nobbs, while no one will mistake it for a Michael Bay picture, has some sense of pace, and an ability to build plot urgency.  As always, Garcia is wonderful with the performers, and here he has effective photography (by Michael McDonough, who also shot Winter's Bone) and production design as well.

Albert Nobbs is a very safe kind of social story--there's not a lot of dispute these days about the ability of women to work without hiding their gender, and any gay rights message the picture may intend is muddled at best by Albert's curious standing as a character.  It's best appreciated by those Paris and Landmark crowds, as a new contribution to the film archive of stories about elegant old-time settings and the people who inhabited them.   

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THE BIJOU'S AWARD BAIT REPORT: Warners' Contenders

5:09 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline reports that Warners has set the release schedule for its 2 Oscar contenders.  Clint Eastwood's biography of FBI patriarch (and cross-dresser) J. EDGAR, starring Leonardo DiCaprio in the title role, is opening November 9 in a few big cities, with wide release on November 11; and EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, the Stephen Daldry-directed 9/11 drama with Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock, begins limited release on Christmas Day.  Both are apparently bypassing the Fall film festival circuit.

Eastwood's film has no competition for the prestige audience when it opens--the other pictures that weekend are the 300 ripoff Immortals and Jack & Jill, which looks bad even for an Adam Sandler movie.  But the Hanks/Bullock film will be facing off against the thick of holiday season, sharing its weekend with The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Cameron Crowe's We Bought A Zoo, and Angelina Jolie's In the Land of Blood and Honey, not to mention Spielberg's The Adventures of Tintin and the new Mission:  Impossible.  

Let the games begin...

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