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Showing posts with label J Edgar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J Edgar. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 11-13

9:44 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Immortals ($32 million) will beat Jack and Jill ($26 million).  Keep in mind Immortals is playing on many fewer theaters than the Adam Sandler comedy and has a much better per theater number.  J. Edgar is playing at even fewer theaters and has the worst per theater tally of the three openers, surprisingly.  The weekend is looking like a $130 million total for the top 12 films, up 16% from the same weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Immortals ($90 million), Jack and Jill ($78 million) and J. Edgar ($33 million).

Tower Heist is holding steady in its second weekend ($78 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas has been downgraded a touch ($39 million). 

Thanks to another great weekend (its third), Puss in Boots has been upgraded again ($179 million), while In Time is holding steady ($40 million). 
 
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Immortals will average $10,300 per theater (a well above average mark) at 3,112 theaters (for $32.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  Jack and Jill is opening with an above average $7,600 per theater at 3,438 theaters ($26.0 million).  J. Edgar is opening with a mediocre $6,000 per theater at 1,910 theaters ($11.5 million).    





November 11-13, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Immortals                 (Rel)     $32.0             $ 90
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $26.0             $ 78
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $25.5   -23%      $179+
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $13.2   -45%      $ 78
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $11.5             $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $ 5.9   -54%      $ 39
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 4.2   -45%      $ 40
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 3.6   -57%      $106-
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 2.7   -39%      $ 56 
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 2.0   -42%      $ 88 


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $130 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45
     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $32, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $11
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

THERE IS A GOD!  Adam Sandler's latest movie in which he plays a brother and a sister will not be the #1 movie of the weekend.  While not a flop, it failed to open to the $30-35 million his fans usually pony up.  Best of all, the film will not come close to the $100 million usually generated by his work in North America.  An end to an era?  Not at all.  But at least a significant portion of the audience is coming to their senses.  Immortals was the big surprise, on track to take the weekend crown by a mile, and Puss in Boots rolls on, down only 20% or so again this weekend.  Total volume for the weekend is looking like $135 million, up 21% from the same weekend last year and up 15% from the weekend's average the last four years.


Immortals blew past its forecast ($15.0 million Friday for an expected $36 million this weekend versus a forecast of $22.5 million). The 300-clone from Relativity is headed for $102 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics have been not been particularly supportive (37% positive at RottenTomatoes).     


Jack and Jill slightly exceeded its forecast ($9.85 million Friday for an estimated $26.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $22.5 million prediction).  The latest Adam Sandler comedy is headed for $79 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been repulsed (only 3% positive at RottenTomatoes).

J. Edgar will open at expectations ($4.25 million Friday for an estimated $11.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $12.0 million prediction).  Playing in far fewer theaters (1,910) than the other openers (over 3,000+ each), this movie really should have had a solid per theater number (Clint Eastwood, diCaprio, historical drama, Oscar hopes).  But J. Edgar will average a little over $6,000 per theater, far below the $11,500 figure for Immortals and below even Jack and Jill's $7,700 average.  Yikes.  

  
Down a preliminary 20% from last weekend (another very good hold), Puss in Boots is still very much in the mix, with its Domestic Final estimate upgraded yet again to $149 million.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
November 11-13, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$25.0]    $28.0   $ 9.0     $149+
Jack and Jill (Sony)     [$22.5]    $26.5   $ 9.8     $ 79
Immortals (Rel)          [$22.5]    $36.0   $15.0     $102
Tower Heist (Uni)        [$13.0]    $13.7   $ 4.9     $ 80
J. Edgar (WB)            [$12.0]    $11.5   $ 4.2     $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 6.0]    $ 5.7   $ 2.3     $ 38-
In Time (Fox)            [$ 4.5]    $ 4.2   $         $ 40

Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$ 4.0]    $ 3.7   $ 1.4     $106-
Footloose (Par)          [$ 3.2]    $ 2.8   $ 1.0     $ 56
Real Steel (DW/DIS)      [$ 2.2]    $ 1.9   $ 0.7     $ 87

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $135 million total, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $36, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $12
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice

1:49 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary boxoffice numbers for Friday, and early indications are good for IMMORTALS, which appears to have already earned $13.5-14M (including $1.4M from Thursday midnight screenings).  That should get it to an overperforming $33-35M for the weekend.  A couple of cautions about these extrapolations, though:  Friday was Veterans Day, which means unusually high numbers for the day and a weekend boxoffice multiple potentially lower than usual, and Immortals' kind of fanboy appeal also often leads to a front-loaded weekend.


It looks to be a tight battle for second place over the weekend, with JACK AND JILLand PUSS IN BOOTS both at $8-9M on Friday.  Both could be in the $24-26M range for the weekend, and either could pull ahead.

As expected, J. EDGAR (in a much smaller 1900 theatre run) is considerably behind, aiming for a long run with around $3.5-4M on Friday on its way to $10-12M for the weekend.  That would be in line with director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter last year, which made $12M in its first wide weekend at 2200 theatres, ultimately leading to a $33M US gross (and more than double that overseas).

TOWER HEIST had an OK but not exceptional hold with around $4.5M on Friday for probably a $13-14M second weekend--certainly not enough to suggest strong word of mouth will turn things around for the movie.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
  

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 11-13

11:51 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

Adam Sandler opens Jack and Jill this weekend, and it will be an uphill battle for it to displace Puss in Boots from the top of the box office.  Immortals will be challenging Jack and Jill for the second spot on the chart.  Box office volume for the weekend will probably be up around 6% over the same weekend last year.        


Opening at more than 3,000 theaters in North America by Sony, Jack and Jill should average a solid $7.400 per theater (for $22.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Shockingly, Sony has not made the latest Adam Sandler masterpiece available to critics -- so there are no reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  Jack and Jill should be on track for around $70 million in North America when it leaves theaters.    

Also at about 3,000 theaters, Immortals from Relativity should average a similar $7,400 per theater (for $22.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated fantasy action film has not been released for reviews.  This movie is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.     

At about 1,900 theaters, J. Edgar from Warner Brothers should average a fairly soft $6,300 per theater (for $12.0 million this weekend).  The R-rated historical drama is running at only 42% positive reviews, far lower than Clint Eastwood and Warners would expect.  This movie is probably headed for around $35 million domestically.    

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
November 11-13                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Jack and Jill          Sony  PG    n/a      $22.5     $ 70
Immortals               Rel  R     n/a      $22.5     $ 60
J. Edgar                 WB  R     42%      $12.0     $ 35

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The third weekend of Puss in Boots should be a very good $25 million, enough to stay at #1.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
November 11-13                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Puss in Boots       DW/Par        -24%      $25.0     $170
Tower Heist            Uni        -46%      $13.0     $ 85
A Very Harold & Kumar   WB        -55%      $ 6.0     $ 44 
In Time                Fox        -43%      $ 4.5     $ 39 
Paranormal Activity 3  Par        -55%      $ 4.0     $113
Footloose              Par        -28%      $ 3.2     $ 55
Real Steel            Sony        -37%      $ 2.2     $ 88


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $118 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $112 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $129 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, up 6% from this weekend last year and even with the four-year average for this weekend.       


This Weekend Last Two Years


11/12/10

 Unstoppable FOX PG13 Denzel Washington Chris Pine 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $23
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $77  Actual: $81
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $86

 Morning Glory PAR PG13 Harrison Ford Rachel McAdams 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33  Actual: $31
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28

 Skyline UNI PG13 Eric Balfour Scottie Thompson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $21
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $46

11/13/09

 2012 SONY PG13 John Cusack Woody Harrelson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $55  Actual: $65
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $164  Actual: $166
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $604

 Pirate Radio UNI R Philip Seymour Hoffman Bill Nighy 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9  Actual: $8
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: AFI Fest Announces Titles

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Los Angelenos will have a chance to get advance looks at some of this year's Oscar candidates at the AFI Film Festival, which begins in just about 2 weeks.  Today the Festival announced the Gala and Special Screenings, which typically make up the bulk of the high-profile titles, and they include quite a few films featured at this fall's film festivals.



The festival begins with the world premiere of Clint Eastwood's J. EDGAR, and other Galas include THE ARTIST, Polanski's CARNAGE, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and SHAME, as well as Luc Besson's THE LADY, which premiered at Toronto.  Special Screenings include, among others, Ralph Fiennes' film of CORIOLANUS, The Duplass Brothers' JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME, the Dardenne Brothers' THE KID WITH A BIKE, Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, and Wim Wenders' documentary PINA, as well as RAMPART, BUTTER, I MELT WITH YOU and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN.  (The festival hasn't yet announced its closing-night presentaiton.)

Veterans of the AFI Festival's "free ticket" policy know that actually getting one of those tickets can be a chore--and sometimes the theatres are overbooked, meaning that even having a ticket is no guarantee of admission.  The Festival does, however, include a great many films worth the effort.

Check out SHOWBUZZDAILY'S STATUETTE STAKES roll of Awards contenders:

     PART I
     PART II
     PART III
 

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part I)

4:44 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



While you weren't looking, the Oscar race began.

One could make the argument, of course, that it's been on for months--since, at least, Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS energized the indie/art-film audience and propelled him into mass consciousness for the first time in years.  (On the other hand, one could also argue that this year's Oscar race started roughly the moment the producers of THE KING'S SPEECH stopped saying "Thank you" last February 27.)

Certainly the Oscars have been in the air since the incredibly complicated new voting rules for Best Picture nominations were announced.  As a result of those rules, we won't know until the nominations are actually announced just how many Best Picture nominees there will be--the final number could be anywhere between 5 and 10, because (to simplify brutally) a minimum threshold has to be met for any given film beyond 5 to qualify for a nomination.

Here at SHOWBUZZDAILY we're embracing the concept of the Oscars as a horse-race.  The Academy Awards are enormous fun, but let's face it:  they have a relatively limited amount to do with quality, and a great deal to do with strategy, demographics and luck.  (Sure, in 20 years it will be clear that THE SOCIAL NETWORK should have won in 2010...  but in 20 years, it'll still be the picture that lost.)  So welcome to our coverage.  Over the next few days, we'll introduce the clear contenders, subdividing them as a racing form might.  Today:  the Chalk (those are the favorites, for the uninitiated).

The odds to win below come from actual bookmaking websites (which probably shouldn't be linked to); the odds to become one of the Best Picture nominees are ours.  (Note that there are some inconsistencies among the odds, due to biases among bookmaking patrons that include a preference for UK titles, and what some might consider undue regard for films that have already been released.)  Place your bets...

CHALK

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/5
Bookie odds to win:  5/2

Good Bet:  Steven Spielberg in his wheelhouse, a mix of sentimentality (A Boy and His Horse) and fierce,warfare (Boy Loses Horse to the trenches of WWI).  It also doesn't hurt that the film is based on the same novel as the Tony-Award winning play (although the two versions were adapted from the book independently of one another).

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen an inch of it yet... except for the trailer, which comes uncomfortably close to what a Spielberg parody mash-up might look like.  (Did John Williams compose the score in 1988?)
 
THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight - Nov. 18)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/3
Bookie odds to win:  3/1

Good Bet:  Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways has been hailed at multiple film festivals, and features a sure-to-be-nominated lead performance from George Clooney.

Bad Bet:  It's a little bit lightweight.  Maybe too much of a comedy for the Academy's taste. 

THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney) - Released Aug. 10)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/2
Bookie odds to win:  20/1

Good Bet:  The little movie that could:  $163M in tickets sold, on a $25M budget.  A weighty subject, and an award-worthy ensemble cast.

Bad Bet:  Concerns about the film's protagonist being the Emma Stone character rather than the maids, plus a general feel among critics that it was a superficial look at an immensely complicated subject.  DreamWorks has War Horse to push--how much effort will they put into a movie that isn't directed by Spielberg and has already banked a ton of profit?

J.EDGAR (Warner Bros - Nov. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/1
Bookie odds to win:  7/2

Good Bet:  Mr. Eastwood.  Exactly the kind of huge, political biography the Academy loves.  DiCaprio aging with lots of prosthetic make-up and a funny voice.  Could this be his year?

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it yet, and it opens in less than 4 weeks.  Flags of Our Fathers and Invictus suggest that historical pageants may not be Clint's thing.  The subject matter is tricky--is the movie really going to tiptoe away from the gay angle? 

THE ARTIST (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  3/2 
Bookie odds to win:  11/2

Good Bet:  There's nothing else remotely like it:  a black-and-white, virtually silent film that has a heart to go along with its technical perfection.  Already a critical darling after its film festival screenings.  It's about movies.  And it's getting this year's main push from Mr. Harvey Weinstein.

Bad Bet:  It's unique, all right, but is it important or just odd?  Is there an audience for it beyond cineastes?  Warm-hearted slapstick comedy isn't usually the Academy's genre of choice.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Classics - Released May 20)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  2/1
Bookie odds to win:  16/1

Good Bet:  The Woodman's Biggest Hit Ever.  (If you don't adjust for inflation.)  A movie everybody likes, it manages to be classy and smart and yet not ostentatious.

Bad Bet:  But let's face it, not one of Woody's very best.  The boxoffice gross may be prize enough. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warner Bros - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/2
Bookie odds to win:  8/1

Good Bet:  There is no better definition of "Oscar Bait" than a movie about 9/11, from the director of Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader, based on a critically acclaimed bestseller, that stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock--not to mention Max Von Sydow, James Gandolfini, Viola Davis, and John Goodman. It could have been assembled from a How-To-Win-An-Oscar kit.

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it.  Critics could very well resist the neatness of the package, and without critical acclaim, its chances would be incredibly far away.

COMING TOMORROW:  THE FIELD

COMING SUNDAY:  ALSO ELIGIBLE


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THE BIJOU'S AWARD BAIT REPORT: Warners' Contenders

5:09 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline reports that Warners has set the release schedule for its 2 Oscar contenders.  Clint Eastwood's biography of FBI patriarch (and cross-dresser) J. EDGAR, starring Leonardo DiCaprio in the title role, is opening November 9 in a few big cities, with wide release on November 11; and EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, the Stephen Daldry-directed 9/11 drama with Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock, begins limited release on Christmas Day.  Both are apparently bypassing the Fall film festival circuit.

Eastwood's film has no competition for the prestige audience when it opens--the other pictures that weekend are the 300 ripoff Immortals and Jack & Jill, which looks bad even for an Adam Sandler movie.  But the Hanks/Bullock film will be facing off against the thick of holiday season, sharing its weekend with The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Cameron Crowe's We Bought A Zoo, and Angelina Jolie's In the Land of Blood and Honey, not to mention Spielberg's The Adventures of Tintin and the new Mission:  Impossible.  

Let the games begin...

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